Keith,
“Do you think it is possible for a martial art particular to the secret societies that has been hidden from the public (but used to train an army to fight in rebellion against the Cheng) to remain hidden from and unseen by the public even after those societies have largely disbanded and the primary reason for secrecy (fall of the Ching dynasty) has ended?”
Almost anything is possible. That being the case, all we can realistically do, as you say, is determine what is more likely as opposed to less likely.
If WCK was really an art trained by a large number of people in the secret societies (as opposed to a small fringe group on the Red Junks), then it likely would still have spread prior to and beyond the Red Junks within the Societies and today be found in Taiwan and overseas much as Hung fist and other Society arts are.
Look at one of the most popular WCK origin myths - that it was created to defeat the more common arts leaked to the Manchu so that soldiers could be trained better/faster and overthrow the Qing.
Yet they don’t spread it, they don’t train the militias, and they don’t overthrow the Qing? Either that wasn’t what WCK was created for, or the implementation was ineffective to the point of, well, not being the work of the brightest minds out there.
Again, IMHO, everyone can and will have theories, from Shaolin to Wudang, from English sailors bringing in western boxing to a little girl fighting off a bully, and that’s great. The more theories, the more attention, the more discussion, but in terms of HISTORY, we only KNOW so much, and the rest, no matter how rational or romantic, is conjecture, and personally I like to keep my conjecture as grounded as possible.
We know the Red Junk had WCK aboard in the 1850s. We’ve thusfar not found WCK stemming from anywhere else, any earlier. It may have, maybe it even did, but there’s nothing to indicate it yet, much less support it. We have a reasonably good idea what WCK looked like back to that point, what shapes it used and how it generated power (which are often considered the mapping points of an MA), and we know what other arts were around at that point in that area. Hopefully that will lead us someplace, and if its to where Hendrik or the VTM or someone else is pointing, fair enough, and if not, hopefully that will be just as acceptable to everyone who is interested not in a particular theory, but to the real origins of our art.